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Economic Data Report

US Inflation (CPI) - Off the Boil?

Written by Philip Rich, Chief Investment Officer, August 13, 2022.

The “all items” CPI index came in at 8.5% (YOY) for July, down from 9.1% in June. The month-over-month index was unchanged. The decline from the nearby peak has led many observers to conclude that the worst of rising inflation may be behind us. These observations are supported by recent declines in commodity prices, including gasoline, and a July decline in the Producer Price Index. It may be too early to declare victory in the war on inflation—8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve’s stated target of 2%, and one month’s data is not a trend.

US Inflation Declines Slightly in July.

8.5% YOY compares favorably to 9.1% in June
There was no overall increase in the month-over-month measure of inflation
Price declines in energy and gasoline were partially offset by increases in food and shelter
Core inflation (less food and energy) held steady at 5.9% (YOY)
Markets reacted favorably to the apparent break in inflation

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, fred.stlouisfed.org

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This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources:

GDP – Bureau of Economic Analysis
                        Employment & Inflation – Bureau of Labor Statistics
                        Interest Rates – Federal Reserve
                        P/E S&P 500 – multpl.com

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