US Inflation (CPI)—Better, but not yet 2%

Written by Philip Rich, Chief Investment Officer,  May 11, 2023.
 

The “all items” CPI index came in at 4.9% for the 12 months ending in April. This was the smallest 12-month increase in the broad inflation measure in two years. Declines in energy prices contributed greatly to the moderation in the broad index, however, gasoline was actually up in April. Food was unchanged for April, as it was in March. The “core” index (all items less food and energy) has not retreated by as much and appears somewhat stuck in the 5.5%- 5.6% range. Shelter, used cars and trucks, insurance, recreation, and personal care all rose in April. Airline fares and new vehicles declined. Inflation is moderating, but core inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Broad Measure of Inflation Declines in April

• 4.9% YOY is well down from the 9.1% peak

• There was no monthly increase in the food index

• Price declines in energy have helped the “all items” index

• Core inflation (less food and energy) came down only slightly to 5.5% (YOY)

• Markets reacted favorably to the news

• Not yet at 2%, but improvement could support a Fed “pause”